Notes on the road

I’m on the road — and haven’t been able to blog as frequently.

Of course, I saw the photos and read the coverage about the “informative assembly” in the Zócalo on Saturday. I recommend López Obrador’s speech. The Google language-tools translation should be okay. Hopefully when you click below, the site is working. López Obrador’s sites are being hacked routinely:

http://testpage.lopezobrador.org.mx/noticias/discursos.html?id=44970 (text)

http://testpage.lopezobrador.org.mx/noticias/audios/0807200601.wma (audio)

Finally, the PRD submitted the formal documents to the federal electoral court to challenge the results. Today was the deadline, I believe. So the legal process has begun. It’s going to be very hard for the judges in the federal electoral court to dismiss the demand of recounting the votes. Again, the demand is not disproportionate in the light of Mexico’s history and very tight electoral outcome.

Finally, there is much talk about the so-called “conspiracy theory” given the curious behavior of the PREP data in the night of July 2 to July 3. The readers should see Luis Mochán’s findings, which he presents here (without making wild claims about the reasons of this strange behavior of the data):

http://em.fis.unam.mx/public/mochan/elecciones/

The only mystery to me is — not that Calderón began way ahead of the pack or the reversion to the mean (which, in percentages, must look smooth) but — the change in trends in the shares of each candidate when around 70% of the polling-place tallies were recorded in the PREP. I don’t think the IFE has explained those inflections yet.

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One Response to “Notes on the road”

  1. Charles Says:

    It’s going to be exceptionally difficult since part of the evidence was video showing ballot box stuffing. That needs to get on Jon Stewart’s Daily Show.

    I’ve just had a quick look at Mochan, but I think there’s more to see. The question is whether the first and last votes counted came from the northern provinces. For example, Figure 20 shows an unusual number of small precincts with votes for Calderon.

  2. Al Grimstad Says:

    That first URL didn’t work for me. At the moment this seems to be the URL for the speech:

    http://www.lopezobrador.org.mx/noticias/discursos.html?id=51502

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